| Category | Approx. Backlog (Pending I-485) | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| EB1 | 11,105 | Fully retrogressed, no spillover to EB2 |
| EB2 | 26,129 | Priority Dates ~Nov 2013 |
| EB3 | 13,079 | Priority Dates ~Nov 2013 |
| Category | Share of 140,000 | Per-Country Cap (7%) | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| EB1 | 28.6% = ~40,040 | ~2,803 | Competes with China, ROW |
| EB2 | 28.6% = ~40,040 | ~2,803 | Major backlog from India |
| EB3 | 28.6% = ~40,040 | ~2,803 | Slightly faster movement |
| Annual Visas Allocated | Scenario | Years to Clear Backlog |
|---|---|---|
| 2,803 (Cap Only) | No Spillover | ~9.3 years |
| 4,000 | Minor Spillover | ~6.5 years |
| 5,000 | Moderate Spillover | ~5.2 years |
| 10,000 | High Spillover (Rare) | ~2.6 years |
| Annual Visas Allocated | Scenario | Years to Clear Backlog |
|---|---|---|
| 2,803 (Cap Only) | No Spillover | ~4.7 years |
| 4,000 | Minor Spillover | ~3.3 years |
| 5,000 | Moderate Spillover | ~2.6 years |
| 10,000 | High Spillover (Rare) | ~1.3 years |
| Category | Spillover Source | Spillover Direction | Effect on EB2 India |
|---|---|---|---|
| EB1 | EB4, EB5, ROW | Consumed internally | No spillover to EB2 |
| EB2 | EB1 (none this year) | None | No benefit |
| EB3 | EB2 (if EB2 is exhausted) | Possible (rare) | Slight spillover may occur only if EB2 clears backlog (unlikely) |
| Category | 2024–2025 Outlook | Reasoning |
|---|---|---|
| EB1 India | Slow, no forward movement till late 2025 | ~11k backlog, consumes spillover |
| EB2 India | Flat movement, few 2013 PDs may get processed | ~2,800/year cap + limited spillover |
| EB3 India | Some forward movement possible, 2013 PDs may get processed | Lower backlog, could benefit slightly from internal redistribution |